Cho đến vài tháng trước, những người vay thế chấp ở các nước phát triển đã yên tâm rằng lãi suất thấp sẽ tiếp tục được duy trì. Hiện nay, lạm phát, lãi suất tăng, giá nhà tăng cao khiến nỗi lo kiếm đủ tiền gửi và trả nợ hàng tháng đè nặng lên người mua nhà, kéo theo nhiều rủi ro cho nền kinh tế.
Ngân hàng Thanh toán Quốc tế, được coi là ngân hàng trung ương của các ngân hàng trung ương, cảnh báo rằng lãi suất tăng sẽ làm tăng gánh nặng nợ nần và hạ giá nhà. Một số chuyên gia cho rằng khoản nợ nhà đất đang báo hiệu một “thời khắc Minsky”, khi nền kinh tế rơi vào suy thoái khi các khoản nợ xấu như bất động sản nằm ngoài tầm kiểm soát.
Nhiều cuộc tranh luận đã diễn ra để giải thích tại sao sự bùng nổ thị trường nhà ở vẫn tồn tại ở các nền kinh tế tiên tiến. Lãi suất thấp làm cho chi phí lãi vay rẻ là một yếu tố quan trọng. Các chính phủ đã phải duy trì mức lãi suất thấp kỷ lục để vực dậy nền kinh tế và thúc đẩy tiền lương sau đại dịch. Do đó, nhu cầu nhà ở tăng cao trong khi nguồn cung nhà ở ngày càng cạn kiệt, nhất là tại các thành phố khiến giá nhà tăng chóng mặt.
Trên thực tế, các chính phủ đã rút kinh nghiệm từ cuộc khủng hoảng nhà ở năm 2008 và không bỏ qua rủi ro tín dụng bất động sản. Họ đã đưa ra các yêu cầu khắt khe hơn về các tiêu chuẩn huy động vốn và tín dụng với các ngân hàng để hạn chế các nhà đầu tư và người mua sử dụng đòn bẩy quá nhiều.
Tuy nhiên, không nên quá lạc quan vào diễn biến thị trường trong bối cảnh thị trường còn nhiều bất ổn. Nhiều người vay thế chấp khi thị trường bùng nổ sẽ lâm vào cảnh nợ nần chồng chất. Mặc dù các khoản vay có đòn bẩy cao không chiếm tỷ trọng lớn trong tín dụng ngân hàng, nhưng chúng sẽ trở nên tồi tệ hơn do lãi suất cao, giá năng lượng tăng và áp lực lạm phát.
Ngay cả khi hệ thống tài chính không rơi vào tình trạng rối ren, giá nhà sẽ không giảm nếu không có hành động đúng đắn từ cơ quan quản lý. Các nhà kinh tế cho rằng mức chi tiêu của hộ gia đình có liên quan đến giá trị tài sản và thu nhập. Nếu giá nhà giảm, mức độ và khả năng chi tiêu sẽ giảm theo. Khi giá nhà tăng, tiền trả nợ tăng lên, làm giảm ngân sách của các hộ gia đình cho các hàng hóa và dịch vụ khác, gây thiệt hại cho nền kinh tế vĩ mô. Bong bóng nhà đất cũng thúc đẩy rủi ro vỡ nợ và thế chấp.
Có nhiều kịch bản ít gây thiệt hại hơn cho thị trường nhà ở và nền kinh tế. Ví dụ, nếu lạm phát được kiểm soát, thì việc tăng lãi suất dài hạn sẽ giảm xuống. Nhiều hộ gia đình có thể vượt qua hoàn cảnh này bằng cách sử dụng số tiền tiết kiệm mà họ tích lũy được trong thời gian đại dịch để mua nhà. Giá nhà có thể không giảm nhiều như lo ngại, hoặc thậm chí không giảm.
Điều đó không có nghĩa là rủi ro từ thị trường nhà ở hiện tại là không có thật. Việc các chính phủ sử dụng “tiền rẻ” để hỗ trợ tăng trưởng và ngăn chặn các cuộc khủng hoảng kinh tế vào thời điểm này là điều dễ hiểu. Khi thắt chặt tiền tệ bắt đầu trở lại, các ngân hàng trung ương và chính phủ cần đảm bảo rằng khoản nợ nhà ở tích lũy trong thời kỳ trước không ảnh hưởng đến triển vọng của thời kỳ tiếp theo.
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