Tại nhiều nước, sức mua Bất động sản suy yếu trong quý I vì Covid-19 nhưng giá nhà nhưng vẫn duy trì mạnh mẽ, thậm chí còn tăng.
Nền kinh tế thu hẹp, các công ty đóng cửa và việc làm đang dần biến mất do Covid-19 nhưng thị trường nhà đất tại Mỹ vẫn tiếp tục tăng giá. Nếu như giá nhà từng sụt giảm trong cuộc suy thoái kinh tế trước thì nay có xu hướng ngược lại. Giá nhà trung bình đã tăng 8% so với trước đó đó, đạt 280.600 USD trong tháng 3, theo Hiệp hội Bất động sản Quốc gia Mỹ (NAR).
Giá nhà tại tại miền trung tây nước Mỹ tăng mạnh nhất ở mức 9,7% trong tháng 3. Tại khu vực Cincinnati, các ngôi nhà đang được bán cao hơn giá niêm yết, theo Donna Deaton, Phó chủ tịch của Re/Max Victory ở Liberty Town, Ohio.
lý do là dù nhu cầu của người mua có kém đi, với doanh số giảm 8,5% trong tháng 3 so với tháng 2, nguồn cung nhà trên thị trường đang thậm chí giảm nhanh hơn. “Nhu cầu thị trường thật sự khá thất vọng, nhưng trong cùng thời điểm thì nguồn cung cũng vậy”, Skylar Olsen, chuyên gia kinh tế đẳng cấp tại Zillow Group, nhận xét.
Số liệu theo dõi của công ty môi giới BĐS Redfin cho biết thêm thêm, các đề nghị tìm mua nhà đã giảm 15% trong tuần kết thúc vào trong ngày 26/4 với trước lúc đại dịch xảy ra. Các ứng dụng thế chấp cho mua nhà trong cùng thời gian cũng đã giảm 20% so với một trước đó đó đó đó, theo Hiệp hội bank thế chấp. trong khi đó, tổng số nhà rao bán đã chạm mức thấp trong 5 năm. Giá niêm yết trung bình tăng 1% so với năm ngoái, ở mức 308.000 USD.
Nhà được rao bán tại Zelienople, Pennsylvania, Mỹ vào trong ngày 18/3. Ảnh: AP
Có 1,5 triệu đơn vị nhà rao bán vào cuối tháng 3, theo NAR, giảm 10,2% so với một trước đó đó. Thậm chí cuối tháng trước, nhiều người bán cũng chỉ miễn cưỡng mới giảm giá. Chỉ dao động 4% người bán giảm giá trong tuần kết thúc vào ngày 25/4, với mức 5,7% trong cùng tuần của năm ngoái, theo Realtor.com. Một số người bán nhà cho biết thêm họ gặp khó chưa phải vì giá cao mà do người mua hàng chưa thể xem nhà và không muốn nhận nhà khi này. Do đó, nhiều người chờ đợi các biện pháp cách ly được nới lỏng trước khi đưa ra lựa chọn có giảm giá bán hay không.
Sarah McMurdy đã rao bán ngôi nhà của mình tại Bethesda (Maryland) vào cuối tháng 3 nhưng sau đó dừng lại vào tháng 4 do đại dịch. “Chúng tôi không cố bán được nhà. Chúng tôi không vội và thà chờ đợi”, bà Sarah nói.
tuy nhiên, một số người mua đang hy vọng kiếm được món hời. Haas El Farra và vợ định mua 1 căn ở Nam California vào đầu tháng 3. lúc Covid-19 tồi tệ hơn, họ lưỡng lự sẽ bị hớ nên yêu cầu người bán hạ giá. lúc người bán từ chối, họ rút cọc và đi tìm một thỏa thuận tốt hơn.
trong khi nhiều nhà kinh tế dự báo doanh số bán nhà sẽ giảm trong năm nay, nhiều tiên liệu cho rằng giá nhà tăng nhẹ hoặc giữ vững. Quỹ thế chấp nhà Fannie Mae cho thấy thêm giá nhà trung bình có thể lên tới 275.000 trong năm nay, từ mức 272.000 USD vào năm ngoái.
Capital Economics dự báo giá nhà trung bình năm nay sẽ giảm 3% so với 2019. Zillow thì dự báo rằng giá nhà có khả năng giảm 2% đến 3% vào cuối năm nay và hồi phục vào năm 2021. Hãng dữ liệu nhà ở CoreLogic lại cho rằng giá nhà trên toàn quốc tăng 0,5% trong thời gian từ tháng 3/2020 đến tháng 3/2021.
Tại châu Á, doanh số bán nhà cũng suy giảm trong quý đầu tiên vì đại dịch. Nhưng không có tín hiệu người mua sẽ tận hưởng được cơ hội giá nhà giảm. Tại Singapore, số lượng nhà được bán trong quý I giảm 11,7% so với quý liền trước, xuống còn 4.309 căn. Tại Hong Kong, doanh số bán nhà mới đã giảm tới 2.262 giao dịch, thấp hơn một nửa so với một năm trước, theo Midland Realty.
Nhà quản lý BĐS Ken Jacobs tại Sydney, cho biết một giao dịch 20 triệu đôla Australia tại nước này đã bị hoãn vì gia đình khách hàng mất 70 triệu USD trong hai tuần qua. Tại Thái Lan, Daiwa Capital Market ước tính thu nhập năm 2020 của 7 nhà phát triển BĐS niêm yết trên thị trường chứng khoán sẽ giảm 27% trong năm nay.
Một góc thành phố Bangkok, Thái Lan. Ảnh: Bloomberg.
“Với bản chất của đại dịch, cú sốc bất ngờ cho hoạt động Bất động sản, cộng với dự đoán về suy thoái tại hầu hết nền kinh tế khu vực, niềm tin của người mua bị ảnh hưởng”, Harry Tan, đứng dầu bộ phận nghiên cứu kỹ khu vực châu Á – Thái Bình Dương của doanh nghiệp quản lý đầu tư bất động sản Nuveen Real Estate, cho biết. Triển vọng kinh tế không chắc chắn, mất việc làm và năng lực tài chính hộ gia đình yếu hơn sẽ đưa đến khối lượng giao dịch nhà ở thấp hơn đáng kể trong năm nay
Ông Christine Li, Trường bộ phận nghiên cứu kỹ kỹ của Cushman and Wakefield tại Singapore và Đông Nam Á, cho rằng giá nhà ở tại các thị trường Đông Nam Á mới nổi có thể phải gặp khó khăn trong ngắn hạn, khi niềm tin của các nhà đầu tư giảm do lệnh cấm du lịch, phong tỏa.
Nhu cầu từ các nhà đầu tư Trung Quốc trong những năm gần đây đã thúc đẩy thị trường bất động sản khu vực này, bao gồm Singapore, Australia, Thái Lan, Malaysia và Việt Nam, nhưng đại dịch có thể sẽ khiến họ không mạo hiểm rót tiền nhiều ra nước ngoài như trước.
Tuy nhiên, điều đó không có nghĩa giá nhà sẽ giảm đáng kể. Ông Simon Smith, Giám đốc nghiên cứu và hướng dẫn cao cấp của Savills cho rằng, các biện pháp hỗ trợ kinh tế trong đại dịch của chính phủ nhiều nước có khả năng cản trở được thiệt hại cho ngành bất động sản.
“Có thể có sự điều chỉnh giá, nhưng sự sụt giảm sâu là không thể xảy ra”, ông Smith nói rất đợi mong sự bình phục bắt đầu vào cuối năm 2020.
Phiên An (theo WSJ, SCMP)
Theo Nguồn: Vnexpress.net
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